The freight market is entering an exciting transition — and all signs point toward a strong recovery ahead.
According to industry analysts, today’s extended downturn — one of the longest in modern trucking history — is actually creating the foundation for a powerful and lasting upturn in 2025 and beyond.
The Longest Downturn in Decades — and Why That’s Good News
Freight cycles typically cool for about a year before rebounding. This time, the slowdown has lasted nearly three years — and that’s exactly what’s setting up a healthier market reset.
Analysts note that the current environment is unsustainable, meaning the market has nowhere to go but up.
When rates stay flat for too long, capacity naturally adjusts. Fewer trucks, fewer carriers, and fewer new builds lead to a tighter supply of available equipment — and that’s when rates begin to strengthen again.
Truck Orders Are Down — Capacity Is Tightening
Recent reports show Class 8 truck orders down more than 40% year-over-year, which means fewer new trucks are entering the market.
Once freight demand increases — as expected with the holiday season and early-2026 industrial growth — shippers will be competing for available capacity, driving rates higher.
It’s a classic freight cycle: extended contraction followed by a stronger, longer-lasting recovery.
Cross-Border Growth and Nearshoring Trends
The rebound isn’t just about rates — it’s about opportunity.
Nearshoring, where companies shift production closer to the U.S., is already creating more cross-border freight and long-term stability in supply chains. Large fleets are now moving hundreds of loads daily between the U.S. and Mexico, and this demand continues to expand across the industry.
For carriers and owner-operators focused on growth, this means new lanes, steady freight, and higher earning potential.
Ban on Non-Domiciled CDLs Could Accelerate the Turn
Industry discussions around a potential ban on non-domiciled CDLs — commercial driver’s licenses issued to individuals who aren’t permanent U.S. residents — could further reshape the driver landscape.
If such a ban takes effect, it would immediately reduce the number of drivers eligible to operate domestically, tightening capacity even more.
While some fleets may need to adjust, this change would likely strengthen rate stability, boost pay opportunities for U.S.-based drivers, and ensure fairer competition among compliant carriers.
For highly reputable fleets such as JRV Logistics, this creates a healthier market environment where safe, legal, and professional drivers are rewarded for their work.
English Proficiency Enforcement Will Further Tighten Capacity
Regulators are also increasing enforcement of English-language requirements for commercial drivers. Federal law already requires drivers to read and speak English well enough to understand road signs, communicate with law enforcement, and complete trip documentation.
Beginning mid-2025, inspectors are expected to start placing non-English-speaking drivers out of service if they cannot meet these standards.
Industry estimates suggest that up to 10% of active drivers could be affected nationwide. As this rule is enforced more consistently, it will likely remove unqualified drivers from the road, leading to a smaller but safer and more professional driver pool.
This reduction in available drivers will further tighten supply — supporting stronger freight rates and improved opportunities for qualified U.S. operators.
What It Means for Owner-Operators
As capacity tightens and freight volumes pick up, owner-operators are positioned to benefit first.
Carriers with strong networks, efficient dispatch, and modern equipment will lead the charge — and those prepared now will see the biggest rewards when the market flips.
At JRV Logistics, we’re already gearing up for that next phase of growth — with brand-new 2025–2026 dry vans, fast-pay programs, and dispatch support designed for high-earning operators.
We believe in running smarter, not harder — and positioning our drivers to take advantage of every market opportunity.
💡 The Takeaway
The trucking market may be quiet now, but it won’t stay that way for long.
Every freight cycle creates opportunity — and the next upturn is shaping up to be one of the strongest in years.
Owner-operators who align with highly reputable carriers such as JRV Logistics will be best positioned to benefit as rates rise, capacity tightens!
👉 Apply today to join JRV Logistics and get ready to move ahead when the market turns.